Shifts in Swing States: Trump and Biden’s Changing Fortunes Revealed by Emerson College Poll

As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, an Emerson College poll of key swing states sheds light on the evolving landscape of the race between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

With both candidates poised to secure their party’s nomination, the focus is now on the battleground states that could determine the outcome in November.

The latest poll, conducted just over six months before the election, reveals notable shifts since Emerson’s previous swing state survey in November 2023.

Trump’s Lead Expands in Three States

In Arizona, where Biden claimed victory in 2020 after several statewide wins for Democrats, Trump has strengthened his position. The poll shows Trump leading Biden by a 48-44 margin, marking a 4 percentage point increase since November.

Michigan, once considered a stronghold for Biden, has seen Trump take the lead by a single point, with 45% of respondents supporting him compared to 44% for Biden. This shift follows questions about Biden’s response to international conflicts, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has drawn criticism from some communities in Michigan.

Similarly, Trump’s narrow lead in Wisconsin has grown slightly, with the latest poll showing him ahead by 47-45, compared to a one-point lead in November.

Biden Makes Progress in Three States

On the other hand, Biden has made gains in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

In Georgia, Trump’s lead has narrowed from 7 points in November to just 3 points in the April poll, with Biden gaining support.

Nevada, a traditionally Democratic state, has seen Trump’s lead shrink from 7 points to 3 points, indicating a more competitive race.

In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead has decreased from 46-43 in November to 47-45 in the latest poll.

The Emerson poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 25 to 29, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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