Columnist Jay Bookman explores the choices ahead for Governor Brian Kemp as he plans his future after leaving office.
If you made a list of people who could become the next U.S. president, Kemp’s name would likely appear. Now, halfway through his final term as governor, he faces big decisions about his next steps. While Kemp knows more about his options than the public—like polling results and donor support—there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
The Senate in 2026?
Before thinking about 2028 and a potential presidential run, Kemp has to consider 2026. That’s when his term as governor ends, and Senator Jon Ossoff’s term is up. Kemp could challenge Ossoff for the Senate seat. If he did, he’d likely face no serious competition from other Republicans and might be the favorite in a general election.
But it’s not that simple. Midterm elections often favor the party that’s not in power—in this case, the Democrats. Predicting what the political climate will look like in 2026 is nearly impossible, especially given how unpredictable U.S. politics have become. Old political alliances are shifting, and new voters are changing the landscape. Anything could happen in the next two years.
The Trump Factor
Trump and his supporters are shaking up politics. They aim to disrupt the system, often breaking norms and rules. If Trump and his allies remain strong, Kemp might feel confident about running for Senate. But if the Republican Party struggles to govern or faces backlash, Kemp might decide the risk isn’t worth it, especially if losing a Senate race could hurt his chances for a presidential bid in 2028.
Does Kemp Even Want a Senate Seat?
If Kemp has presidential ambitions, he might skip the Senate race altogether. He could focus on running for president as a successful two-term governor from a key swing state, rather than as a senator tied to Washington’s reputation. Governors often have more appeal in presidential campaigns since they can claim outsider status.
The 2028 Presidential Race
Kemp’s chances in 2028 may also depend on Trump. If Trump wins a second term and it’s seen as a success, the Republican nomination might go to someone loyal to Trump, like Vice President J.D. Vance. In that case, Kemp’s chances could diminish. But if Trump fails, Kemp’s moderate image might make him a stronger contender.