Jill Stein’s candidacy could indeed pose a challenge for the Democratic Party in close races, as some analysts argue that Green Party votes may draw from potential Democratic supporters.
This theory builds on the precedent set in the 2016 election, where Stein’s 1.1% of the vote in key states such as Michigan and Wisconsin was seen by some as a factor in Hillary Clinton’s narrow losses in those battlegrounds.
For Kamala Harris, facing tight margins against Donald Trump in 2024, Stein’s impact could be similarly consequential if even a small fraction of left-leaning voters opt for the Green Party rather than supporting the Democratic ticket.
Polling and electoral analysis indicate that third-party candidates, although unlikely to win, can play the role of spoiler by influencing the distribution of votes within swing states. With Michigan and Wisconsin polling within fractions of a percentage point between Trump and Harris, Stein’s share—even if modest—might sway results, especially given these states’ history of slim victory margins.
To illustrate, the hypothetical effect of these Green Party votes might mirror 2016, where the Democratic Party argues that a consolidation of progressive voters could have tipped the scales.
The Democratic campaign’s ad likening Stein’s candidacy to a vote for Trump underscores their focus on this potential split in the left-leaning electorate. Whether this message will influence voters to coalesce around Harris—or drive more voters to alternative candidates like Stein—remains to be seen.
The maps and visualizations provided by sources like Newsweek offer insights into these dynamics, mapping how third-party voting trends could influence the final tally in crucial states.